If you took a look at the House Bill that went down in flames today, you might have caught Congress fiddling with GAAP as Rome burned. See Section 132 of the bill proposed to empower the SEC to suspend application of FAS 157, Fair Value Measurements at any time, and for any company. Doesn't Congress know that the SEC already has the power to make and break GAAP?
See also Section 133, which directs the SEC to submit a study to Congress on FAS 157 as it applies to financial institutions, and preferably to make FAS 157 and the FASB a scapegoat for bank failures. If Congress were serious about studying accounting's role in how our economy's "fundamentals" have been heading due south, they shouldn't be looking at FAS 157, because it only addresses "how," and not "when" fair value is to be measured. "When" is, of course, the real question, which means that Congress should be questioning instead the accounting standards that the members' banker friends actually do favor: FAS 115 (marketable securities), FAS 140 (securitizations), and FAS 114 (loans). You know, the ones with the loopholes. Such is politics.
The Blog Must Go On
I feel somewhat abashed to be discussing the niceties of financial reporting in the wake of current events, but if Congress can do it, why can't I? My topic for today is to follow up my previous post on current value accounting, discussing whether the current values to be measured should be replacement costs or fair values. Specifically, I want to share with you my reactions to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's view of "hold-to-maturity" versus "market value." Two other comments on my advocating for replacement cost accounting (and a history lesson from Bob Jensen) also got me thinking a little bit more about what I wrote.
First, Bernanke gave congressional testimony arguing that two prices existed for troubled loans: a "hold-to-maturity" price and a current market price. At first blush, this sounds something like the difference between replacement cost and fair value, but it isn't. This is important to me, because I think that some people (for example, see the comment of George Weintraub on my previous post) may erroneously associate replacement cost measurements with 'value in use,' which I believe would be the FASB's nomenclature for what Bernanke has called "held-to-maturity." There can be no question that value in use invariably presents one with a reliability problem due to the subjectivity of estimating future cash flows and discount rates (i.e., 'mark-to-model'), but that is not necessarily the case with replacement costs.
Moreover, I'm not sure that Bernanke, whose intellectual capacity I respect and admire, is making much sense here (and I suspect he knows that). If we are talking exclusively about financial assets and a global marketplace, how could it be that the market price understates the present value of holding a loan until maturity? If the subject were changed to producing or consumption goods, one could expect a difference between value-in-use and value–in-sale. However in the case of financial assets, such a presumption is perhaps a step too far. Teaming up with Treasury Secretary Paulson to sell such a dubious notion to the public may in the long run affect Bernanke's reputation for independence, just as Greenspan's reputation was damaged by his flip-flop on Bush's tax cuts.
Moving on to replacement costs and financial assets, the 'bid-ask' spread captures the difference between replacement cost and fair value. The 'bid' price is fair value, because it is the amount that someone is willing to pay to purchase the asset from you. The "ask" price (a higher price) is the replacement cost, because it is the amount that a market participant who already has the asset is willing to sell it to people who want it. But, even if there is no formal market maker to provide both bid and ask prices, the concept still applies for the purpose of comparing replacement cost and fair value accounting. For example, and moving from financial to real assets (and I owe this one to Bob Jensen), bluebook prices for vehicles are the functional equivalent of average ask prices by used-car dealers.
Second, Jim Noel, my longtime friend and sounding board, expressed his doubts after reading my previous post that replacement costs were an appropriate basis of measurement for bank balance sheets. That's because the single most important question to ask about a bank, as the financial crisis painfully illustrates, is liquidity. Indeed, the strongest argument for fair value is that it is the gold standard for measuring liquidity.
My response to Jim is to revert to core principles (at least mine) of financial reporting: investors primarily seek information about wealth and changes in wealth. In normal circumstances, liquidity is of secondary importance. As a case in point, maximum liquidity leaves one with just cash and no wealth producing assets.
Granted, there are circumstances when liquidity is paramount, but that should not mean that principles-based accounting needs to be either replacement costs all the time, or fair value all the time. For example, when ARB 43 requires a departure from historic cost to measure inventory, the general basis of measurement is replacement cost. However, replacement cost valuations are capped by 'net realizable value' and floored by 'net realizable value less incremental costs to sell.' A second, and more general example, is the required switch to liquidation values when an entity's ability to continue as a going concern becomes doubtful to a sufficient degree.
The Fair Value Debate Needs Some Rules
My general sense is that some order is needed to make sense of the challenge to fair value. Whatever your position is on the issues, I would like to suggest that you think about providing answers to the following three questions—in the order listed:
- Which assets and liabilities should be measured at current value?
- Which 'attribute' of an asset or liability should be measured—i.e., replacement cost, fair value, historic cost, present value of future cash flows?
- What rules would be needed to assure that the attribute chosen is reliably measured?
Which assets and liabilities should be measured at current value -- So much of the balance sheet and earnings volatility that the fair value naysayers are complaining about is brought on by our 'multi-attribute model', where some assets and liabilities are measured in terms of actual past cash outflows and others are measured in terms of estimated future cash inflows. The status quo is simply not stable, so we have to decide whether to move backwards to historic cost or forward to a single set of current values.
Of course, I believe that means we have to finally bring ourselves to measure liabilities as well as assets at their current values. This shouldn't be so hard. A simple economic principle that I pointed out in a previous post is that all of the liabilities of an entity are perforce assets of other entities. If we can measure these financial relationships when they are on the lender's balance sheet at current values, then why in the name of symmetry can't we use that valuation for borrowers? Oy, it makes me crazy.
Which attribute should be measured – Some say fair value, some say present value of future cash flows, some are sticking with historic cost, and I say replacement cost. Whatever your druthers, reported earnings will not pass a reasonableness test until we stop being content with adding apples and oranges on the balance sheet.
How to reliably measure the current value attribute chosen? -- I hope George W. (the Skeptical Texas CPA) and others may now see that the difference between replacement cost and fair value is really not a difference between market quotes and mark-to-model. Rather, it's how best to measure what it is you think ought to be measured. Maybe fair value and replacement cost measurements will require mark-to-model every now and then, but for reasons I pointed out in a previous post, replacement cost measurement will require less of it.
http://cryptome.org/bailout-2.pdf



The Anti-Fair Value Lobby Has a Point (Even if They Don't Know It)
In the current environment, I am an ardent supporter of those who would resist calls to suspend fair value accounting rules. But, when I was at the SEC, I had a front-row seat on what was perhaps one of the most brazen abuses of fair value accounting in history. I was reminded of it by Joseph Stiglitz's recent commentary on CNN.com, in which he characterized the mortgage securitization craze as just another pyramid scheme. Keep that in mind as I tell you the story of Stephen Hoffenberg's $400 million fraud.
Hoffenberg controlled Towers Financial Corporation whose business ostensibly was to purchase junk receivables for just a few cents on the dollar from hospitals, credit card companies, phone companies, etc. Claiming to be able to draw water from stones, Towers would blithely write up the value of the receivables (not strictly 'fair value,' but functionally the same) to create the illusion of collateral and earnings. Investors would be enticed by high interest rates, stellar financial results, apparently healthy cash flow, and a successful track record of paying off prior investors. But like all pyramid schemes, the returns to investors came from only one real source: new investors-cum-victims. The collection operations themselves were pretty much a sham.
All of this occurred in the late '80s and early '90s before business journalists could no longer allow themselves to remain ignorant of accounting matters—save, perhaps the occasional exposé in Barron's. The Justice Department was even worse, eschewing the drudge work of explaining complex financial fraud charges to juries in favor of prosecuting drug pushers. Hoffenberg also flew under the SEC's radar for years by avoiding (perhaps, evading) registration of its debt and equity offerings (think hedge funds).
Hoffenberg might have been able to actually get away with his scheme if he had only known when to quit. But, as is often the case, greed and ego knew no bounds for him. He eventually accumulated enough of other people's money to buy the New York Post from its bankrupt owner, and was practically knighted by the state's governor, Mario Cuomo (by coincidence, the father of the guy whom John McCain now says should be the next SEC chairman). Being on the verge of obtaining permanent financing of his acquisition of the Post by using his ill-gotten gains as collateral finally lit a fire under the regulators; if Hoffenberg were allowed to close the deal, the government's case could turn into an "investigation of a citizen above suspicion" in the eyes of the public.
Less known about the case, but adding to my own deep sense of injustice was that Hoffenberg was able to successfully parry the SEC for a time by trotting out all manner of exorbitantly paid 'expert witnesses' to bless his accounting and business model. Exhibit A was Sidney Davidson, an emeritus professor of the University of Chicago's business school and former member of the Accounting Principles Board. Was Davidson also taken in by Hoffenberg? I think not; Davidson was also allegedly (my information is second hand here) on the payroll of Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan, one of the great implosions of the S&L era. One of Davidson's 'consulting assignments' was to convince Ernst & Young that the partner who smelled a rat should be taken off the engagement.
Back to the Present
The point of dragging Davidson into this is to show how big money can talk; and it is doing a lot of talk about fair value accounting lately. Invariably, it seems, a very ugly side of human nature seems to come out as a pyramid scheme inevitably starts to lose steam. Those whose investment may be hung out to dry curse the doubters for 'ruining it for everyone else.' That's how I see the proponents of suspending, or even doing away with, the current set of rules we have in place for recognizing certain financial assets at fair value, and taking the gains losses to income.
But, how could fair value accounting be the device by which one scheme was kept alive, yet could have prevented another? Like the Hoffenberg case, there is no question that the two main ingredients of the current fraud were lack of transparency into what was going on, and accounting tricks to give the illusion that all was well. The difference is that in the case of our present extreme unction, it was the ability to hide actual losses (as opposed to create fictitious gains) by not using fair value accounting for junk assets. The answer for the apparent paradox lies in a significant flaw in 'fair value' accounting.
Fair Value is Not Perfect, But It Replacement Cost Would Have Been a Lot Better
First, the limitation of fair value. As I have long argued, I believe in comprehensive application of some form of 'current value,' but 'fair value' ain't it. Fair value is based on exit prices – the highest amount something could be sold for in some market, and there may well be more than one, or even no market to choose from. But 'current replacement cost' is based on the lowest amount that you would have to pay to replace the thing you already have. If the standard for measuring bad loans were current replacement cost, there would have been no way that even Sidney Davidson could have defended a higher replacement cost than the price Hoffenberg had just paid, no matter how much he, the putative master collector, thought he could extract.
The logic of replacement cost also, I believe, takes out the critics of current values at the knees, and also gives them a little something--a higher valuation than fair value. In illiquid financial markets, the question of how much it would cost you to replace a stream of risky cash flows with another contract(s) that provide the same flows with the same risk could be a lot greater than what you could sell them for. Replacement cost relies on the proposition that there will always be a seller if you offer enough money. Stated another way, replacement cost accounting would say that the point on the bid-ask spread to value a security would be the lowest accepted 'ask' price from among all sellers, which in illiquid markets could be significantly higher than the 'bid' price.
Even the proponents of fair value measurements would have to admit that FAS 157 equivocates on where fair value lies on the bid-ask spread. Under replacement cost accounting, the answer is unequivocal. If you want more information on the logical superiority of replacement cost, see here and here for two earlier posts in which I explain the correspondence between replacement cost measures and economic concepts of wealth.
But setting aside the differences between fair value and replacement cost, there are other important observations to make about the mess we are in, and who is proposing what to get us out. First, those who would argue that fair value rules should be suspended during this economic crisis are no different to me than the first potential investors in the pyramid scheme who express concern that there might not be a seat for them when the music stops.
Second, if fair value accounting had been more comprehensively applied, and not less as some would like to see, than at least the bubble would have burst before it became as large as it did; financial institutions would have been forced to take more losses earlier for fair valuing loans and held to maturity investments. For this, the FASB has to take much of the blame for the loopholes they permitted when crafting FAS 115.
Third, it appears that the fair value debate, no matter how cynically one may regard the critics, is finally making it clear that we have to de-link regulatory capital measurement from reporting to investors. If regulators want to rely on a fair value balance sheet, fine. If not, they should make their own, thank you very much.
And another big difference between Towers and the current crisis is that Hoffenberg got 20 years. Today's CEOs are smart enough to take their money and run.
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 09:25 PM in Commentary, Financial Analysis, Financial instruments, SEC | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)